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The United States Intelligence Community has released its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, identifying China as the largest threat to US national security.

Some shit you should know before you read: If you’re unaware, the US intelligence community releases an Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) each year to provide Congress and the public with an unclassified overview of the most pressing national security threats facing the country. Created by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the report draws on insights from all 18 US intelligence agencies and is typically released ahead of congressional testimony by intelligence leaders. In last year’s assessment, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea were highlighted as the top four nation-state threats, citing China’s global influence and technological ambitions, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and cyber operations, Iran’s regional destabilization efforts, and North Korea’s advancing missile program. The 2024 report also warned of transnational issues such as climate change, pandemics, and the destabilizing effects of misinformation and emerging technologies.

What’s going on now: In the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, the US intelligence community paints a stark picture of China’s expanding influence and capabilities, calling it “the most comprehensive and robust military threat to U.S. national security.” The report details China’s steady—though uneven—progress in military modernization, especially in technologies that could be used to seize Taiwan and deter or defeat US intervention. China’s advancements include hypersonic weapons, stealth aircraft, an expanding nuclear arsenal, cyberwarfare capabilities, and enhanced space-based assets. Intelligence leaders also warned that the Chinese military is likely integrating advanced AI, including large language models, “to generate information deception attacks, create fake news, imitate personas, and enable attack networks.”

Beyond military strength, the report outlines China’s strategic ambition to overtake the US as the world’s leading power in artificial intelligence by 2030. According to the intelligence community, China is pursuing a “whole-of-government approach” to AI dominance, supported by widespread cyber-espionage and the theft of intellectual property from numerous US companies. “China has stolen hundreds of gigabytes of intellectual property from companies in Asia, Europe, and North America,” the report states, noting that up to 80% of US economic espionage cases have involved PRC actors. Additionally, China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains—especially those essential to semiconductor production—poses another strategic risk to US interests. The assessment warns that “a prolonged cessation in supplies controlled by China could disrupt critical inputs needed for U.S. industry and technological advancements.”

RE Cyber: China’s cyber operations are described as increasingly dangerous, with the report warning that Beijing has “demonstrated the ability to compromise U.S. infrastructure through formidable cyber capabilities that it could employ during a conflict with the United States.” Notably, the Chinese cyber campaigns (tied to groups like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon) are specifically designed to “preposition access on critical infrastructure for attacks during crisis or conflict.”

RE Taiwan: The report presents a concerning outlook for Taiwan. Intelligence officials assess that the PLA is actively building and refining capabilities specifically designed for a potential future operation to seize the island. While China remains cautious about triggering a global backlash, the assessment suggests it will likely escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan in the coming years. The PLA is said to be “intensifying the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan” and advancing capabilities to “seize Taiwan and deter—and if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention.”

RE Space: The report notes China’s growing arsenal of counterspace weapons, which could be used to disrupt or destroy US satellites. China “has fielded ground-based counterspace capabilities, including electronic warfare systems, directed energy weapons, and antisatellite missiles” and is conducting orbital operations that could lay the groundwork for future space-based attacks.

RE Fentanyl: Lastly, the 2025 report highlights China’s limited cooperation in curbing the export of precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production—an issue that has become a major friction point in US-China relations. Intelligence leaders, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, accuse China of prioritizing profit over curbing the US opioid crisis, prompting the Trump administration to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports. While China denies involvement, the report frames the fentanyl crisis as both a public health emergency and a national security concern, further straining diplomatic ties between the two powers.

China reacts: When asked about the intel report, China’s foreign ministry said, “The U.S. issues irresponsible and biased reports like this year after year, seeks to promote the false “China threat” narrative and fans up major-country rivalry, so that there could be an excuse to suppress China and perpetuate US supremacy. China’s development has a long historic thread and is robust and self-driven. Our goal is very clear and there’s nothing to hide about it: we strive to make sure that the Chinese people can lead a better life and China can contribute more to the world we live in. We have no intention to surpass or supplant anyone.”

The ministry added, “China is not a mirror image of the hegemonic US. The US needs to stop viewing its ties with China from the outdated Cold War perspective, stop containing China in the name of “strategic competition”, and stop aiding or abetting “Taiwan independence” in any form. The US should stop falsely picturing China as a threat and work with China for a steady, sound and sustainable China-U.S. relationship.”